In August, the index for production of durable goods was 103.5, which was the highest index level since June 2019. However, compared with one year ago, the index increased 7.0%, which was the fifth straight month of growth but the fourth month in a row of decelerating growth. 

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, grew 5.8%. This was the fourth straight month of accelerating growth. The key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – grew at an accelerating annual rate for the third consecutive month. Durable goods new orders are indicating that production should see accelerating growth in the second half of 2021 and possibly into 2022. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: aerospace, construction materials, custom processors, durable goods, electronics/computers, food/beverage processing, forming/fabricating (non-auto), hardware, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, medical, military, off-road/construction machinery, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, power generation, primary metals, printing, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Growth: appliances, automotive, HVAC

Accelerating Contraction: 

Decelerating Contraction: furniture, metalcutting job shops, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, pumps/valves/plumbing products