In April, real consumer durable goods spending dropped to its lowest level since September 2014. The month-over-month rate of contraction for durable goods spending was -23.8%, which was the fastest rate of month-over-month contraction ever. 

The annual rate of growth decelerated for the second consecutive month, decelerating to the slowest rate of growth since June 2010. However, the real 10-year Treasury rate is falling at its fastest year-over-year rate since late 2012. The question is will lower interest rates be enough to overcome lower incomes?

The annual rate of change in consumer durable goods spending is falling at an even faster rate than it did during the Great Recession. Even though the change in the 10-year Treasury rate is falling, which typically leads to accelerating growth in durable goods spending, it could take a year or more for lower rates to influence consumer durable goods spending.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices. 

Accelerating Growth: 

Decelerating Growth: appliances, durable goods, electronics, food/beverage, other non-durable goods, pleasure boats, total consumer

Accelerating Contraction: air transportation services, clothing/footwear, medical care, motor vehicles/parts

Decelerating Contraction: