In June, real consumer durable goods spending was $1,986,298 million, which was an all-time high. The month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 11.7%, which was the fastest rate of growth since July 2005. 

The annual rate of growth accelerated for the first time since February. The real 10-year Treasury rate, which is the nominal rate minus the rate of inflation, was -0.84%. This was the sixth consecutive month and ninth of the last 11 that the real rate was negative. So far, lower interest rates have been enough to overcome lower incomes and boost durable goods spending. The question is will that continue without a significant increase in employment?

 

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices. 

Accelerating Growth: appliances, durable goods, electronics, food/beverage, pleasure boats

Decelerating Growth: other non-durable goods

Accelerating Contraction: air transportation services, clothing/footwear, medical care, total consumer

Decelerating Contraction: motor vehicles/part