In June 2021, real disposable income was $15,567,086 (millions of USD, SAAR). This was down 3.0% from one year ago. While nominal income in June 2021 was higher than June 2020 income, the accelerating rate of inflation during the last year led to a significant decrease in real disposable income. And, although disposable income was still historically high, the stimulus effect was starting to wear off, especially as many states have or are moving to eliminate extended unemployment benefits (federal extended unemployment benefits are scheduled to end in September) due to economic lockdowns.

The annual rate of growth in real disposable income decelerated to 5.3% in June. This was slightly less than double the historic average growth rate and the slowest rate of growth since July 2020. Unless there is more stimulus, then real disposable income likely had its peak rate of growth in March 2021. And, without further stimulus to boost disposable income, it is likely that consumer spending will take a significant hit.