In July, real disposable income was $16,088 billion. This was the third straight month that the level of real disposable income declined, which is very unusual historically. Also, July income was 8.4% more than one year ago. However, the one-month rate of growth decelerated for the third consecutive month. All of the above is due to government transfer payments such as expanded unemployment insurance and government stimulus checks. 

The annual rate of growth accelerated to 4.8%. This was the fastest rate of annual growth since June 2015. Normally, this kind of acceleration would lead to a dramatic increase in consumer spending. While the increased government transfer payments may have helped support consumer spending, the question is what happens to consumer spending when those payments end.