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Durable Goods New Orders Grow Nearly 10% in July
Annual growth in durable goods new orders should continue for another three to six months. However, it appears that consumer durable goods spending, which is a good leading indicator of new orders, may have peaked in July. Also, motor vehicle and parts, computers and electronics, and appliance new orders – all products that make heavy use of computer chips – contracted month-over-month in July.
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New orders for real durable goods totaled $240,169 million in July 2021, which was the lowest total since February. Compared with one year ago, new orders increased 9.8%, which ended four straight months of faster than 25% month-over-month growth. Because durable goods new orders had recovered from lockdowns by this point in 2020, moving forward any comparisons to one year ago will not be artificially boosted.
July was the seventh consecutive month of month-over-month growth in durable goods new orders. The result was that the annual rate of change grew 8.0%, which was the third month in a row of accelerating growth and the fastest rate of growth since February 2012.
Accelerating Growth: construction materials, durable goods, fabricated metal products, machinery/equipment, off-road/construction machinery, power generation, primary metals, total capital goods
Decelerating Growth: appliances, computers/electronics, HVAC, motor vehicles/parts
Accelerating Contraction: ship/boat building
Decelerating Contraction: aerospace, oil/gas-field/mining machinery
