Durable Goods New Orders Nearing a Bottom
A burst in consumer durable goods spending indicates that the annual rate of contraction in durable goods new orders may be near a bottom.
New orders for real durable goods totaled $232,626 million in August. This was 7.0% less than one year ago. The month-over-month rate of contraction peaked in April at 31.3%.
The result was that the annual rate of change contracted 9.9%, which was the fastest rate of annual contraction since April 2010. However, consumer durable goods spending hit an all-time high for three months straight. Therefore, consumer durable goods spending is indicating a bottom in the rate of contraction in durable goods new orders may be near.
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It’s important to note that aerospace orders in August were negative for the fifth time in six months and non-defense aerospace orders were negative for the sixth consecutive month.
Accelerating Growth:
Decelerating Growth: appliances, ship/boat building
Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, construction materials, durable goods, fabricated metal products, motor vehicle/parts, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, power generation, total capital goods
Decelerating Contraction: computers/electronics, HVAC, machinery/equipment, off-road/construction machinery, primary metals