In December, the index for production of durable goods was 102.4. Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 3.3%, which was the slowest rate of contraction since February 2020. 

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, contracted 9.1% this month. This was the 10^th consecutive month of accelerating contraction. The key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – has bottomed out, according to its rate of change, and indicating that production should do the same soon. Also, consumer durable goods spending, which leads durable goods new orders, has grown more than 11% for six months in a row. This seemingly means production needs to increase significantly to keep from eating too far into inventories.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: appliances

Decelerating Growth: electronics/computers

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, automotive, construction materials, durable goods, food/beverage processing, forming/fabricating (non-auto), furniture, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, medical, metalcutting job shops, military, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, petrochemical processors, power generation, primary metals, printing, pumps/valves/plumbing products, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: custom processors, hardware, HVAC, off-road/construction machinery, plastic/rubber products