In May, the index for production of durable goods was 100.2, which was its second-highest level since February 2020. Compared with one year ago, the index increased 26.1%, which was the third straight month of growth and the second consecutive month with growth faster than 26%. Of course, part of the reason for this historically fast rate of growth was an easy comparison with months in the beginning of the economic lockdown. 

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, grew 1.3%. This was the first month of annual growth since July 2019. The key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – has bottomed out, according to its rate of change, and is indicating that production should see accelerating growth in the second half of 2021. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: appliances, automotive, custom processors, durable goods, electronics/computers, food/beverage processing, hardware, HVAC, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, medical, military, off-road/construction machinery, plastic/rubber products, power generation, ship/boat building

Decelerating Growth: 

Accelerating Contraction: 

Decelerating Contraction: aerospace, construction materials, forming/fabricating (non-auto), furniture, metalcutting job shops, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, petrochemical processors, primary metals, printing, pumps/valves/plumbing products, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products