In December, real consumer durable goods spending was $1,994.2 billion. This was the first month below $2,000.0 billion since June 2020. Still, the month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 9.5%, which was nearly double the historic average rate of growth and the eighth straight month of growth. This was the fastest, longest run of growth since the summer of 1999 in the middle of the dot com bubble. The annual rate of growth accelerated for the seventh straight month to 6.4%, which was the fastest rate of growth since December 2018.

The real 10-year Treasury rate, which is the nominal rate minus the rate of inflation, was -0.31%. This was the 12^th consecutive month and 15^th of the last 17 that the real rate was negative. However, the rate was grinding slowly higher since April.  December’s real rate was the highest since December 2019, which was the last time the real 10-year Treasury rate was positive.

In December, the year-over-year change in the real rate was -35 basis points. The change was negative for the 24^th month in a row. The change was at its highest level since December 2019. Since April, the trend in the year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury was less negative. A less negative change in the real rate is generally less stimulating to the economy.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices. 

Accelerating Growth: durable goods, food/beverage, motor vehicles/parts, other non-durable goods, pleasure boats

Decelerating Growth: appliances, electronics

Accelerating Contraction: air transportation services, clothing/footwear, medical care, total consumer

Decelerating Contraction: