In February, real consumer durable goods spending reached an all-time high. The month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 7.8%, which was the third month in a row with growth faster than 7.4% and four of the last six with growth faster than the historic average rate of 5.6%. 

The annual rate of growth accelerated for the third month in a row to 5.7%. This was the fastest rate of growth since January 2019. However, even though the real 10-year Treasury rate declined in 2019 and early 2020, it is possible that there will be contraction in March and very likely there will be contraction in April due to the COVID-19 shock.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices. Note that all spending categories but appliances moved to accelerating growth. Further, appliances were very close to shifting to accelerating growth.

Accelerating Growth: appliances, clothing/footwear, durable goods, electronics, food/beverage, medical care, motor vehicles/parts, total consumer

Decelerating Growth: air transportation services, other non-durable goods, pleasure boats

Accelerating Contraction: 

Decelerating Contraction: