New orders for real durable goods totaled $242,313 million in February, which was up 2.0% from one year ago. February was the first month of growth since July 2019 and the fastest rate of month-over-month growth since January 2019. 

The result was that the annual rate of change contracted 4.1%, decelerating for the first time this contractionary cycle. Based on accelerating growth in consumer spending on durable goods, durable goods orders should bottom. Additionally, the trend in the 10-year Treasury rate is supportive of a bottom in durable goods new orders.

However, the latest data for durable goods new orders is from February. A lot has changed since then, specifically the spread of COVID-19. This is likely to suppress new orders for durable goods orders for several reasons. First, there are significant supply chain disruptions. Second, businesses will be less likely to want to make commitments for capital goods in an environment that is more uncertain. Third, consumers will be doing less shopping and also are less likely to want to make significant purchases due to the increased uncertainty in the economy. Therefore, it is likely that durable goods new orders will contract faster when the March and April data is released.

Accelerating Growth: appliances, ship/boat building

Decelerating Growth: power generation

Accelerating Contraction: computers/electronics, fabricated metal products, HVAC, motor vehicle/parts

Decelerating Contraction: aerospace, construction materials, durable goods, machinery/equipment, off-road/construction machinery, ​​​​oil/gas-field/mining machinery, primary metals, total capital goods