There were 100,800 housing permits filed in February 2020. Permits filed in February were up 12.4% compared with one year ago, which was the fifth time in six months that permits grew faster than 12%. February was the eighth consecutive month of growth in housing permits.

In February, the annual rate of growth accelerated to 5.7%, which made it the sixth-straight month of accelerating growth. This was the fastest rate of annual growth since July 2018. The annual rate of growth will likely continue to accelerate for a couple of more months before it is significantly affected by COVID-19. 

In February, the nominal 10-year Treasury rate was 1.50%, which was the lowest monthly average for the 10-year Treasury rate ever. Of course, the nominal rate was nearly 100 basis points (about 0.50%) in the early days of March). At the same time, inflation, according to the CPI, was above 2% for the fourth consecutive month and increasing at its second fastest rate since October 2018. The combination of the falling nominal 10-year Treasury rate and the rising rate of inflation pushed the change in the real 10-year Treasury rate to -0.80%. This was the lowest level for the year-over-change since  December 2016. Also, it was the 14^th month in a row that the change was negative.

The change in the 10-year Treasury rate is a good leading indicator of housing permits and construction spending. A decreasing year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate should lead to increases in these data points down the line.