In September, real disposable income was $15,750 billion. While this was slightly higher than last month, September income was lower than April through July. This is extremely unusual historically, but it is a direct result of the initial round of stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits during the early months of the pandemic. Also, September income was 5.5% more than one year ago, which was significantly faster month-over-month growth than the historic average. All of the above is still largely due to government transfer payments such as expanded unemployment insurance and government stimulus checks. 

The annual rate of growth accelerated to 5.3%. This was the fastest rate of annual growth since March 1999. Normally, this kind of acceleration would lead to a dramatic increase in consumer spending. While the increased government transfer payments may have helped support consumer spending in the near term, the question is what happens to consumer spending when those payments end?