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Income Growth Slowing Ahead of COVID-19 Shock

After falling below 2% in December 2019, the one month rate of growth grew 2.2% for the second consecutive month.

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In February, real disposable income was $15,213 billion, which was an all-time high as is usually the case for real disposable income. After falling below 2% in December 2019, the one month rate of growth grew 2.2% for the second consecutive month. This rate of growth in income is fairly slow and well below the historical average growth rate of 3.1%. 

The annual rate of growth decelerated to 2.7%, falling below 3% for the third month in a row. Also, it was down from its peak rate of growth of 4.0% in December 2018 and the slowest rate of growth since October 2017. 

Of course, this data is prior to the significant shock from non-essential businesses closing towards the end of March due to COVID-19. March income will almost assuredly contract compared with last year. And, once April rolls around, the month-over-month contraction could be the largest in the data series.

Keep in mind that changes in real disposable income typically lead capital equipment consumption by almost 24 months.

Gardner Business Media - Strategic Business Solutions