Income Growth Slowing Ahead of COVID-19 Shock
After falling below 2% in December 2019, the one month rate of growth grew 2.2% for the second consecutive month.
In February, real disposable income was $15,213 billion, which was an all-time high as is usually the case for real disposable income. After falling below 2% in December 2019, the one month rate of growth grew 2.2% for the second consecutive month. This rate of growth in income is fairly slow and well below the historical average growth rate of 3.1%.
The annual rate of growth decelerated to 2.7%, falling below 3% for the third month in a row. Also, it was down from its peak rate of growth of 4.0% in December 2018 and the slowest rate of growth since October 2017.
Of course, this data is prior to the significant shock from non-essential businesses closing towards the end of March due to COVID-19. March income will almost assuredly contract compared with last year. And, once April rolls around, the month-over-month contraction could be the largest in the data series.
Keep in mind that changes in real disposable income typically lead capital equipment consumption by almost 24 months.