In September, the index for production of durable goods was 99.9. Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 8.1%, which was the third month in a row that the month-over-month rate of contraction was about 8%. This was a significantly slower rate of contraction than April to June when the rate of contraction was faster than 13% each month. 

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, contracted 8.6% this month. This was the seventh consecutive month of accelerating contraction. The key leading indicator of production—durable goods new orders—is starting to bottom out, according to its rate of change, and indicating that production should do the same soon. Also, consumer durable goods spending, which leads durable goods new orders, reached an all-time high for three months in a row and appeared to be at a bottom and about to start contracting at a slower rate.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: 

Decelerating Growth: electronics/computers, military

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, construction materials, custom processors, durable goods, forming/fabricating (non-auto), furniture, hardware, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, medical, metalcutting job shops, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, power generation, primary metals, printing, pumps/valves/plumbing products, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: appliances, automotive, food/beverage processing, HVAC, off-road/construction machinery