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Machine Tool Orders: Annual Rate of Contraction Accelerates

In February, the annual rate of contraction of machine tool orders in both units and dollars contracted faster. This was expected as the GBI: Metalworking, which leads machine tool orders by 7-12 months, rate of contraction was just starting to bottom.

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February machine tool orders were 1,549 units and $269,721,000.

February’s unit orders were the lowest since July 2016. Orders for the month contracted 20.3% compared with a year ago. This was the eighth month in a row of contraction and the sixth in the last seven with a rate of contraction faster than 20%. The annual rate of contraction accelerated for the second month in a row to -15.3%. This was the fastest rate of annual contraction since August 2016.

Dollar orders contracted 17.9% compared with one year ago. This was the 13th-straight month of dollar order contraction and the 14th in the last 15 months. February was the eighth month in a row of accelerating contraction in the annual rate of change in dollar orders as the rate of contraction fell to -21.5% from -20.9%.

The accelerating annual contraction in machine tool units and dollars was expected as the GBI: Metalworking annual rate of contraction had just started to bottom at the beginning of 2020. The Index tends to lead machine tool orders by about seven months. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the GBI: Metalworking dropped sharply in March. This drop caused the GBI: Metalworking annual rate of contraction to accelerate once again. This will not change the current trend of accelerating contraction for machine tool orders. Although, it may cause the contraction in machine tool orders to be somewhat steeper and/or push the bottom of the contraction further into the future.

Gardner Business Media - Strategic Business Solutions