In September, the index for production of durable goods was 100.6. Compared with one year ago, the index increased 5.4%, which was the sixth straight month of growth but the fifth month in a row of decelerating growth. This was the slowest rate of month-over-month growth since January 2019.

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, grew 6.8%. This was the fifth straight month of accelerating growth. The key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – grew at an accelerating annual rate for the fourth consecutive month. Durable goods new orders are indicating that production should see accelerating growth in the second half of 2021 and possibly into 2022. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: aerospace, appliances, construction materials, custom processors, durable goods, electronics/computers, food/beverage processing, forming/fabricating (non-auto), hardware, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, medical, metalcutting job shops, military, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, power generation, primary metals, printing, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Growth: automotive, HVAC, off-road/construction machinery

Accelerating Contraction: 

Decelerating Contraction: furniture, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, pumps/valves/plumbing products