In November, real cutting tool orders were $189.1 million, which was the lowest level for cutting tool orders since January 2018. Compared with one year ago, cutting tool orders contracted -11.3%, which marked the ninth consecutive month of month-over-month contraction. Additionally, this was the fastest rate of month-over-month contraction since July 2016. The annual rate of change also contracted at an accelerating rate for the second month. 

The GBI: Metalworking is a good leading indicator of cutting tool orders and leads cutting tool orders by seven-to-10 months. The annual rate of change in the Index has contracted for 10-straight months, clearly indicating that the annual rate of change in cutting tool orders will continue to accelerate. However, the GBI rate of change does appear to be in the initial stages of a turn. If it bottoms in the first quarter of 2020, then it would be expected that the rate of change in cutting tool orders would bottom around the summer of 2020.