In December, the Index for production of durable goods was 106.0, which was the third lowest level for the index in 2019. Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 1.0%, which was the fourth straight month of contraction.

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, grew 0.7% this month. However, the annual rate of growth decelerated for the 10th​​​​-straight month. December’s growth rate was the slowest since June 2017, and it is likely to decelerate even more, as the month-over-month rate of growth has been relatively weak the last nine months. Further, the key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – is indicating slower growth in industrial production.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: aerospace, electronics/computers, military, ship/boat building

Decelerating Growth: construction materials, durable goods, forming/fabricating (non-auto), industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, medical, off-road/construction machinery, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, power generation, pumps/valves/plumbing products

Accelerating Contraction: appliances, automotive, custom processors, hardware, HVAC, machinery/equipment, metalcutting job shops, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, primary metals, textiles/clothing/leather goods

Decelerating Contraction: food/beverage processing, furniture, printing, wood/paper products