New orders for real durable goods totaled $225,927 million in January, which was down 3.7% from one year ago. Additionally, this was the sixth-straight month of contraction and the 11^th month of contraction out of the last 12. Although, the rate of contraction was somewhat slower than the previous 10 months.

The result was that the annual rate of change contracted 4.4%, moving at a faster rate of contraction for the sixth-straight month. This was the fastest rate of annual contraction since June 2016. However, based on accelerating growth in consumer spending on durable goods, durable goods orders should bottom out soon. Additionally, the trend in the 10-year Treasury rate is supportive of a bottom in durable goods new orders.

However, the latest data for durable goods new orders is from January. A lot has changed since then, specifically the spread of COVID-19. This is likely to suppress new orders for durable goods orders for several reasons. First, there are significant supply chain disruptions. Second, businesses will be less likely to want to make commitments for capital goods in an environment that is more uncertain. Third, consumers will be doing less shopping and also are less likely to want to make significant purchases due to the increased uncertainty in the economy.

Accelerating Growth: appliances

Decelerating Growth: power generation

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, computers/electronics, construction materials, durable goods, fabricated metal products, HVAC, machinery/equipment, motor vehicle/parts, primary metals, ship/boat building, total capital goods

Decelerating Contraction: off-road/construction machinery, ​​​​oil/gas-field/mining machinery