In October, real cutting tool orders were $167.9 million, which was the highest order total since March.
While disposable income is growing at its fastest annual rate in 35 years, consumer spending is contracting at its fastest annual rate since the data series started in 1959.
The month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 12.1%, which was the sixth straight month with growth faster than 11%.
For the fourth time in sixth months, housing permits grew faster than 11.5%.
The month-over-month rate of contraction was close to 6.0% each of the last five months.
Capacity utilization has improved every month since April. The annual rate of change in capacity utilization should bottom out any month now.
Machine tool orders increased for the second month in a row. The trend in the GBI indicates growth in machine tool orders should continue.
Compared with one year ago, November’s monetary base was up 53.6%, which was the third month in a row and fifth in the last seven months with faster than 50% growth.
The change in the 10-yr Treasury was at its highest level since January. A less negative change in the real rate is less stimulating to the economy, which is not what the Federal Reserve wants right now.
Iron ore and steel prices increased sharply during the second half of 2020 as strong demand caught suppliers who shuttered plants earlier in the year off-guard. The steel industry had been facing eroding spot prices for more than a year before COVID was classified as a pandemic in March. After watching spot prices fall throughout 2019 and then fearing additional strain on the industry due to the spread of COVID across the world—and especially in the US—it is all too reasonable to understand why the industry shuttered large amounts of production early on in 2020.
Consumer durable goods spending is growing extremely fast, hitting a record high five straight months, and indicating a bottom in the rate of contraction in durable goods new orders has occurred.
The Gardner Business Index moved lower between October and November from 53.9 to 51.0. The decline was largely a result of slowing activity in production and new orders. Large firms categories (100-250 and >250 employees) in recent months have signaled significantly better overall business conditions relative to firms under 20 employees in size.
Mexican Media Brands