Consumer durable goods spending is growing extremely fast, hitting a record high five straight months, and indicating a bottom in the rate of contraction in durable goods new orders has occurred.
The Gardner Business Index moved lower between October and November from 53.9 to 51.0. The decline was largely a result of slowing activity in production and new orders. Large firms categories (100-250 and >250 employees) in recent months have signaled significantly better overall business conditions relative to firms under 20 employees in size.
There were 132,900 housing permits filed in October 2020, which was the third month in the last four with more than 130,000 permits filed. That has not happened since March to June 2007.
October had the lowest level of income since the start of the pandemic. Although, income was still 5.0% higher than one year ago because some COVID-related benefits were still in place.
In October, real consumer durable goods spending was $2,066.5 billion, which is an all-time high for the fifth consecutive month.
New legal precedent set by the U.S. International Trade Administration may expose Chinese manufacturers to a broad range of new antidumping and countervailing duties in the U.S.
The GBI: Metalworking indicated that the annual rate of contraction in cutting tool orders should bottom out near the end of the year.
The accelerating growth in the money supply is indicating growth in capital equipment consumption.
Compared with one year ago, capacity utilization contracted 4.4%, which was the sixth straight month that the month-over-month rate of change contracted at a slower rate and the slowest rate of contraction since February.
Michael Guckes and Christina Fuges discuss the October Moldmaking Index results and what they may mean in the closing quarter of 2020. October’s Index readings pointed to a strong base of expansionary activity during October and the potential for additional growth through the remainder of 2020.
Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 4.2%, which was the sixth consecutive month of decelerating contraction.
The nominal 10-year Treasury rate has been flat since March. And, with slowing inflation, the change in the 10-year Treasury rose to its highest level since January.
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