As automotive OEMs closed facilities and states closed non-essential businesses, significantly more manufacturers made adjustments to production/capacity in last week’s survey.
Month-over-month housing permits grew faster than 12% for the fifth time in six months but will likely slow significantly due to COVID-19.
January cutting tool orders were $196.5 million, which were down 9.8% compared with one year ago.
A growing money supply tends to correlate with increases in capital equipment consumption.
In the third week of the of the COVID-19 survey, manufacturers started making more significant adjustments to contingency plans, budgets/spending, and staffing/hiring. However, production and capacity were relatively unchanged.
January’s unit orders were the lowest since January 2017. Orders for the month contracted 30.3% compared with year ago.
The month-over-month rate of contraction in durable goods capacity utilization slowed for the fourth month, which is a positive sign for manufacturers.
While industrial production data for February was just released and a lot has changed since February, the data might contain a few signs of what industries will do well despite COVID-19.
In the second week of a survey on COVID-19, manfuacturers reported fewer changes to their business with less severe impact on their with the lone exception of travel related activities.
The change in the 10-year Treasury dropped to -0.80%, which is its lowest level since December 2016. And, the actual rate has fallen even farther, more than 100 basis points, in March 2020.
According to a survey conducted the week of March 2, 53% of discrete parts manufacturers have seen no change to their business because of COVID-19. A smaller percent, 39%, have made no adjustments to their business because of the virus.
Based on the January data, durable goods new orders looked to be near a bottom. However, the spread of COVID-19 means that the trends based on the latest data may not reflect the future moves in durable goods new orders.
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