Federal programs designed to help the country's financially worse off borrowers from overwhelming debt burdens are generally working. These programs are proving to help the economically hardest hit and most vulnerable to the pandemic; however, the number of borrowers facing some form of long-duration credit stress is insidiously accelerating.
Durable goods new orders during the fourth quarter of 2020 were showing strong year-over-year gains. One high-frequency measure that can serve as a proxy for more recent durable goods orders is railcar activity measured weekly.
That’s the fastest rate of growth in housing permits since June 2015 and the second-fastest since July 2013.
Starting from a much higher level, the monetary base is growing almost as fast as it did in 2008-2009. Typically, this leads to increased capital equipment consumption.
Durable goods production contracted at its slowest rate since February 2020 in December.
The GBI: Metalworking backlog indicates that there will be further improvement in durable goods capacity utilization in 2021.
The change in the real 10-year Treasury rate was negative for the 24th month in a row. However, the change was at its highest level since December 2019.
Led by three consecutive months of the GBI: Metalworking over 50, machine tool orders are moving in a positive direction.
The GBI 2020 Year In Review looks back at business activity data over the last 12-months in order to give manufacturing leaders the insights they will need to maximize their success in 2021.
November orders were 2.8% more than one year ago, making it the first month of growth since February 2020 and just the second since January 2019.
Manufacturers closed the year on a high note as business activity across many business elements improved during December. Trends seen during the second-half of 2020 suggest that 2021 will have challenges of its own that manufacturers would be wise to proactively tackle early in the new year.
In October, real cutting tool orders were $167.9 million, which was the highest order total since March.
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